Varbergs BoIS FC 4–3 IF Brommapojkarna

Varbergs BoIS FC

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

IF Brommapojkarna

9/3/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 22Varberg Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC37%

×Draw25%

IF Brommapojkarna38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Varbergs BoIS FCExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.49

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.47

IF Brommapojkarna

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 69 away

1.10

creates per match

1.42

1.56

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.10

IF Brommapojkarna

1.42

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.56

IF Brommapojkarna

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw

62%

Varbergs BoIS FC or IF Brommapojkarna

75%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

63%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

18%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

77%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

43%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

18%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

77%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

44%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

49%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.10 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.47

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.42 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

37%

level

25%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

38%

IF Brommapojkarna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff