IF Brommapojkarna 1–1 Varbergs BoIS FC

IF Brommapojkarna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Varbergs BoIS FC

10/27/2019

Superettan · Round 29Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna44%

×Draw23%

Varbergs BoIS FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF BrommapojkarnaExpected goals in this matchVarbergs BoIS FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.45

IF Brommapojkarna

1.73

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.45

IF Brommapojkarna creates 19% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 67 away

1.87

creates per match

1.57

1.32

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.87

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.57

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.32

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw

68%

IF Brommapojkarna or Varbergs BoIS FC

77%

Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC

56%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

23%

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

82%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

52%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

25%

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

77%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

42%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

58%

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.87 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.73

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.57 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

44%

level

23%

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

32%

IF Brommapojkarna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff