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Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF — Allsvenskan 2018

Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
9/24/2023AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 24Varberg Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC31%
×Draw25%
Hammarby FF44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.22
Hammarby FF
1.50

Hammarby FF creates 23% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 126 away

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.10
Hammarby FF
1.45

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.56
Hammarby FF
1.33

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par
Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

Hammarby FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw
56%
Varbergs BoIS FC or Hammarby FF
75%
Draw or Hammarby FF
69%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
13%
Hammarby FF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
70%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
34%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
12%
Hammarby FF 1+ goals
78%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
44%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
41%
Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.10 + Hammarby FF defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Hammarby FF attack 1.45 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
31%
level
25%
Hammarby FF scores more
44%

Hammarby FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Hammarby FF

Hammarby FF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 in Allsvenskan on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Varberg Energi Arena in Varberg.