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Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Allsvenskan 2018

Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
10/10/2022AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 25Tele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Hammarby FF59%
×Draw21%
Varbergs BoIS FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammarby FF
2.05
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.11

Hammarby FF creates 85% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 61 away

creates per match

Hammarby FF
2.25
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.21

allows per match

Hammarby FF
1.01
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.85

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw
80%
Hammarby FF or Varbergs BoIS FC
79%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
41%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+
36%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals
87%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
61%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
33%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
67%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
30%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
75%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.01 · 127 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.85 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 2.25 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.05

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.21 + Hammarby FF defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hammarby FF scores more
59%
level
21%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
20%

Hammarby FF at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hammarby FF vs Varbergs BoIS FC

Hammarby FF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 5-1 in Allsvenskan on October 10, 2022.

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.