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Vaprus vs Tammeka II — Esiliiga A 2026

Vaprus
Vaprus
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tammeka II
Tammeka II
11/10/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 36Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vaprus62%
×Draw19%
Tammeka II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaprus
2.39
Tammeka II
1.28

Vaprus creates 87% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

creates per match

Vaprus
2.50
Tammeka II
1.56

allows per match

Vaprus
1.00
Tammeka II
2.28

finishing

Vaprus+0.00on par
Tammeka II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaprus ↓

Tammeka II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Vaprus or draw
81%
Vaprus or Tammeka II
81%
Draw or Tammeka II
38%

Winning margin

Vaprus wins by 2+
40%
Tammeka II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vaprus 1+ goals
91%
Vaprus 2+ goals
69%
Vaprus 3+ goals
42%
Tammeka II 1+ goals
72%
Tammeka II 2+ goals
37%
Tammeka II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vaprus (draw refunded)
76%
Tammeka II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaprus at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 34 matches

Tammeka II away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaprus attack 2.50 + Tammeka II defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.39

Tammeka II attack 1.56 + Vaprus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vaprus scores more
62%
level
19%
Tammeka II scores more
19%

Vaprus at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Vaprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Vaprus 2–1 Tammeka II

Vaprus beat Tammeka II 2-1 in Esiliiga A on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion.