Tammeka II 1–0 Vaprus: Result & Stats | Esiliiga A

Tammeka II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vaprus

7/1/2019

Esiliiga A · Round 18Tartu Sepa tänava staadion (Tartu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tammeka II43%

×Draw25%

Vaprus32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tammeka IIExpected goals in this matchVaprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.27

Tammeka II

1.50

Vaprus

1.27

Tammeka II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

1.72

creates per match

1.76

0.78

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Tammeka II

1.72

Vaprus

1.76

allows per match

Tammeka II

0.78

Vaprus

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tammeka II+0.00on par

Vaprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tammeka II ↓

Vaprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tammeka II or draw

68%

Tammeka II or Vaprus

75%

Draw or Vaprus

57%

Winning margin

Tammeka II wins by 2+

21%

Vaprus wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tammeka II 1+ goals

78%

Tammeka II 2+ goals

44%

Tammeka II 3+ goals

19%

Vaprus 1+ goals

72%

Vaprus 2+ goals

36%

Vaprus 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tammeka II (draw refunded)

57%

Vaprus (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tammeka II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Vaprus away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tammeka II attack 1.72 + Vaprus defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vaprus attack 1.76 + Tammeka II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tammeka II scores more

43%

level

25%

Vaprus scores more

32%

Tammeka II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tammeka II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff