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Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme — Meistriliiga 2026

Vaprus
Vaprus
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
5/30/2026MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 14Parnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Vaprus22%
×Draw23%
Kalju Nomme55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaprus
1.09
Kalju Nomme
1.84

Kalju Nomme creates 69% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 132 away

creates per match

Vaprus
1.16
Kalju Nomme
1.68

allows per match

Vaprus
2.01
Kalju Nomme
1.02

finishing

Vaprus+0.00on par
Kalju Nomme+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaprus ↓

Kalju Nomme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vaprus or draw
45%
Vaprus or Kalju Nomme
77%
Draw or Kalju Nomme
78%

Winning margin

Vaprus wins by 2+
8%
Kalju Nomme wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Vaprus 1+ goals
66%
Vaprus 2+ goals
30%
Vaprus 3+ goals
10%
Kalju Nomme 1+ goals
84%
Kalju Nomme 2+ goals
55%
Kalju Nomme 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Vaprus (draw refunded)
29%
Kalju Nomme (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaprus at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.01 · 97 matches

Kalju Nomme away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaprus attack 1.16 + Kalju Nomme defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Kalju Nomme attack 1.68 + Vaprus defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vaprus scores more
22%
level
23%
Kalju Nomme scores more
55%

Kalju Nomme at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kalju Nomme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistriliiga: Vaprus 3–1 Kalju Nomme

Vaprus beat Kalju Nomme 3-1 in Meistriliiga on May 30, 2026.

The match was played at Parnu Rannastaadion in Parnu.