Kalju Nomme 1–2 Vaprus: Result & Stats

Kalju Nomme

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Vaprus

4/26/2026

Meistriliiga · Round 9Hiiu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Kalju Nomme57%

×Draw22%

Vaprus21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalju NommeExpected goals in this matchVaprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.07

Kalju Nomme

1.91

Vaprus

1.07

Kalju Nomme creates 79% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 96 away

1.98

creates per match

1.03

1.11

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Kalju Nomme

1.98

Vaprus

1.03

allows per match

Kalju Nomme

1.11

Vaprus

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalju Nomme+0.00on par

Vaprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalju Nomme ↓

Vaprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kalju Nomme or draw

79%

Kalju Nomme or Vaprus

78%

Draw or Vaprus

43%

Winning margin

Kalju Nomme wins by 2+

33%

Vaprus wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kalju Nomme 1+ goals

85%

Kalju Nomme 2+ goals

57%

Kalju Nomme 3+ goals

30%

Vaprus 1+ goals

66%

Vaprus 2+ goals

29%

Vaprus 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kalju Nomme (draw refunded)

73%

Vaprus (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalju Nomme at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.11 · 129 matches

Vaprus away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.83 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalju Nomme attack 1.98 + Vaprus defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.91

Vaprus attack 1.03 + Kalju Nomme defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kalju Nomme scores more

57%

level

22%

Vaprus scores more

21%

Kalju Nomme at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kalju Nomme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff