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Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vaprus
Vaprus
CANC
11:00
Kalju Nomme
Kalju Nomme
2/7/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Pärnu Jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vaprus42%
×Draw19%
Kalju Nomme38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaprus
2.37
Kalju Nomme
2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vaprus
3.60
Kalju Nomme
2.71

allows per match

Vaprus
1.80
Kalju Nomme
1.14

finishing

Vaprus+0.00on par
Kalju Nomme+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaprus ↓

Kalju Nomme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Vaprus or draw
62%
Vaprus or Kalju Nomme
81%
Draw or Kalju Nomme
58%

Winning margin

Vaprus wins by 2+
25%
Kalju Nomme wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vaprus 1+ goals
91%
Vaprus 2+ goals
68%
Vaprus 3+ goals
42%
Kalju Nomme 1+ goals
89%
Kalju Nomme 2+ goals
65%
Kalju Nomme 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Vaprus (draw refunded)
53%
Kalju Nomme (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaprus at home — creates 3.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Kalju Nomme away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaprus attack 3.60 + Kalju Nomme defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.37

Kalju Nomme attack 2.71 + Vaprus defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vaprus scores more
42%
level
19%
Kalju Nomme scores more
38%

Vaprus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vaprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme — Match Preview

Vaprus face Kalju Nomme on February 7, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vaprus host Kalju Nomme at Pärnu Jalgpallihall.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.