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Vanspor FK vs Kasımpaşa — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
AET
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
12/17/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundAtatürk Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vanspor FK40%
×Draw28%
Kasımpaşa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vanspor FK
1.27
Kasımpaşa
1.09

Vanspor FK creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Vanspor FK
1.00
Kasımpaşa
1.18

allows per match

Vanspor FK
1.00
Kasımpaşa
1.55

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par
Kasımpaşa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Kasımpaşa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw
68%
Vanspor FK or Kasımpaşa
72%
Draw or Kasımpaşa
60%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+
18%
Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals
72%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
36%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
14%
Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
66%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
30%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
56%
Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Kasımpaşa away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.00 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kasımpaşa attack 1.18 + Vanspor FK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vanspor FK scores more
40%
level
28%
Kasımpaşa scores more
32%

Vanspor FK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Vanspor FK 2–1 Kasımpaşa

Vanspor FK beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 17, 2019.

The match was played at Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu in Van.