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Kasımpaşa vs Vanspor FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
12/4/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kasımpaşa75%
×Draw14%
Vanspor FK10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
2.88
Vanspor FK
1.00

Kasımpaşa creates 188% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
2.63
Vanspor FK
0.57

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
1.44
Vanspor FK
3.14

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par
Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Vanspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
90%
Kasımpaşa or Vanspor FK
86%
Draw or Vanspor FK
25%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
55%
Vanspor FK wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
94%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
78%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
54%
Vanspor FK 1+ goals
63%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
26%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
88%
Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 2.63 + Vanspor FK defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.88

Vanspor FK attack 0.57 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
75%
level
14%
Vanspor FK scores more
10%

Kasımpaşa at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Kasımpaşa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasımpaşa vs Vanspor FK

Kasımpaşa beat Vanspor FK 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 4, 2019.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.