Vanspor FK 0–3 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Vanspor FK

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Erzurumspor FK

Y. Kirtay 88'

M. Rodriguez 63'

M. Fettahoglu 52'

2/28/2026

1. Lig · Round 28Ataturk City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vanspor FK39%

×Draw29%

Erzurumspor FK32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vanspor FKExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.05

Vanspor FK

1.19

Erzurumspor FK

1.05

Vanspor FK creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 109 away

1.32

creates per match

1.15

0.95

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Vanspor FK

1.32

Erzurumspor FK

1.15

allows per match

Vanspor FK

0.95

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw

68%

Vanspor FK or Erzurumspor FK

71%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

61%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

17%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

70%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

33%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

12%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

65%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

28%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

55%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.32 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.15 + Vanspor FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vanspor FK scores more

39%

level

29%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

32%

Vanspor FK at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

M. Fettahoglu

Erzurumspor FK · M

8.9

Match Events

3'

Mehmet Özcan

10'

Yakup Kırtay

33'

Santeri Hostikka

52'

M. Fettahoglu↳ E. Tozlu

57'

B. Isciler← S. Destici

63'

M. Rodriguez↳ E. Tozlu

72'

B. Keser← S. Akgun

79'

Xesc← E. Bars

79'

A. Demirol← A. Traore

83'

Mustafa Yumlu

83'

A. Kabak← M. Rodriguez

83'

H. Yener← E. Tozlu

88'

Y. Kirtay↳ A. Kabak

90+4'

A. Gerxhaliu← M. Fettahoglu

90+4'

C. Sylla← G. Crociata

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VansporErzurumspor

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots10

0.83Expected Goals (xG)2.67

7Corners5

15Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots10

2On Target5

5Off Target5

4Blocked1

5Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

508Total Passes329

417Accurate Passes247

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2