Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Vanspor FK: Result & Stats

Erzurumspor FK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vanspor FK

E. Tozlu 55'

M. Orbanic 68' (OG)

10/4/2025

1. Lig · Round 9Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Erzurumspor FK47%

×Draw25%

Vanspor FK28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Erzurumspor FKExpected goals in this matchVanspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.18

Erzurumspor FK

1.58

Vanspor FK

1.18

Erzurumspor FK creates 34% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 19 away

1.64

creates per match

1.42

0.94

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK

1.64

Vanspor FK

1.42

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK

0.94

Vanspor FK

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Vanspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw

72%

Erzurumspor FK or Vanspor FK

75%

Draw or Vanspor FK

53%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

24%

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

79%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

47%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

21%

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

69%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

33%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

62%

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Vanspor FK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vanspor FK attack 1.42 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more

47%

level

25%

Vanspor FK scores more

28%

Erzurumspor FK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Tozlu

Erzurumspor FK · F

7.5

Match Events

-5'

6'

35'

45'

46'

55'

E. Tozlu↳ G. Crociata

61'

E. Secgin← M. Ozcan

66'

Yakup Kırtay

68'

M. OrbanicOwn goal

73'

Z. Jevsenak← A. Traore

74'

M. Rodriguez← M. Fettahoglu

75'

A. Gerxhaliu← M. Yumlu

80'

83'

88'

90+6'

90+3'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ErzurumsporVanspor

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots9

5Corners3

9Fouls22

Shots

8Total Shots9

1On Target0

3Off Target4

4Blocked5

4Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

377Total Passes310

301Accurate Passes230

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Discipline

9Fouls22

4Yellow Cards6

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Erzurumspor FK vs Vanspor FK

Erzurumspor FK and Vanspor FK drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on October 4, 2025.

Goals: E. Tozlu (55'), M. Orbanic (68' o.g.).

Erzurumspor FK controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.

Erzurumspor FK vs Vanspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Erzurumspor FK vs Vanspor FK