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Vanspor FK vs Boluspor — 1. Lig 2018

Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Boluspor
Boluspor
1/9/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 20Ataturk City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vanspor FK44%
×Draw27%
Boluspor29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vanspor FK
1.36
Boluspor
1.05

Vanspor FK creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 148 away

creates per match

Vanspor FK
1.32
Boluspor
1.15

allows per match

Vanspor FK
0.95
Boluspor
1.40

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par
Boluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Boluspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw
71%
Vanspor FK or Boluspor
73%
Draw or Boluspor
56%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+
21%
Boluspor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals
74%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
39%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
16%
Boluspor 1+ goals
65%
Boluspor 2+ goals
28%
Boluspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
60%
Boluspor (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Boluspor away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.40 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.32 + Boluspor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Boluspor attack 1.15 + Vanspor FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vanspor FK scores more
44%
level
27%
Boluspor scores more
29%

Vanspor FK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vanspor FK vs Boluspor

Boluspor beat Vanspor FK 1-0 in 1. Lig on January 9, 2026.

The match was played at Ataturk City Stadium in Van.