Vanspor FK 2–2 Boluspor: Result & Stats

Vanspor FK

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Boluspor

12/19/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundAtatürk Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vanspor FK45%

×Draw27%

Boluspor28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vanspor FKExpected goals in this matchBoluspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.00

Vanspor FK

1.36

Boluspor

1.00

Vanspor FK creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Vanspor FK

1.00

Boluspor

1.00

allows per match

Vanspor FK

1.00

Boluspor

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Boluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Boluspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw

72%

Vanspor FK or Boluspor

73%

Draw or Boluspor

55%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

21%

Boluspor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

74%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

39%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

16%

Boluspor 1+ goals

63%

Boluspor 2+ goals

26%

Boluspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

62%

Boluspor (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Boluspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.00 + Boluspor defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Boluspor attack 1.00 + Vanspor FK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vanspor FK scores more

45%

level

27%

Boluspor scores more

28%

Vanspor FK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff