Vanspor FK 1–2 Bandırmaspor: Result & Stats

Vanspor FK

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Bandırmaspor

Bikoue 51'

Douglas Tanque 44', 11'

8/29/2025

1. Lig · Round 4Ataturk City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vanspor FK41%

×Draw27%

Bandırmaspor31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vanspor FKExpected goals in this matchBandırmaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.11

Vanspor FK

1.31

Bandırmaspor

1.11

Vanspor FK creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 110 away

1.32

creates per match

1.27

0.95

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Vanspor FK

1.32

Bandırmaspor

1.27

allows per match

Vanspor FK

0.95

Bandırmaspor

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Bandırmaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw

69%

Vanspor FK or Bandırmaspor

73%

Draw or Bandırmaspor

59%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

19%

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

73%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

38%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

14%

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

67%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

30%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

57%

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.32 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bandırmaspor attack 1.27 + Vanspor FK defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vanspor FK scores more

41%

level

27%

Bandırmaspor scores more

31%

Vanspor FK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vanspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Douglas Tanque

Bandırmaspor · F

8.9

Match Events

11'

Douglas Tanque

32'

Erdem Seçgin

34'

Atınç Nukan

44'

Douglas Tanque↳ D. Ndongala

46'

B. C. Kara← A. Vlachomitros

46'

Jefferson← A. Traore

51'

Bikoue↳ E. Secgin

55'

C. Turkmen← M. Gumuskaya

59'

F. C. Genc← B. Ramirez

59'

M. Manis← E. Secgin

66'

Y. Abdioglu← M. Cavusoglu

66'

E. Aydin← D. Ndongala

78'

W. Samake← Douglas Tanque

80'

81'

81'

86'

90'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VansporBandırmaspor

Overview

73%Possession27%

9Total Shots7

6Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots7

2On Target3

5Off Target2

2Blocked2

4Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

73%Possession27%

519Total Passes193

434Accurate Passes122

84%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls13

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0