Vanspor FK 2–2 Bandırmaspor: Result & Stats

Vanspor FK

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bandırmaspor

O. Torun 90+5'

B. Er 87' (pen)

S. Akaydin 83'

H. Bak 58'

9/1/2019

League #205 · Kırmızı - 1Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vanspor FK33%

×Draw28%

Bandırmaspor39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vanspor FKExpected goals in this matchBandırmaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.23

Vanspor FK

1.10

Bandırmaspor

1.23

Bandırmaspor creates 12% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.20

1.25

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Vanspor FK

1.00

Bandırmaspor

1.20

allows per match

Vanspor FK

1.25

Bandırmaspor

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanspor FK ↓

Bandırmaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vanspor FK or draw

61%

Vanspor FK or Bandırmaspor

72%

Draw or Bandırmaspor

67%

Winning margin

Vanspor FK wins by 2+

13%

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vanspor FK 1+ goals

67%

Vanspor FK 2+ goals

30%

Vanspor FK 3+ goals

10%

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

71%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

35%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vanspor FK (draw refunded)

46%

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanspor FK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanspor FK attack 1.00 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bandırmaspor attack 1.20 + Vanspor FK defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vanspor FK scores more

33%

level

28%

Bandırmaspor scores more

39%

Bandırmaspor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

B. Keser← B. Satılmış

58'

H. Bak

62'

B. Gök← C. Özkaymak

69'

B. Er← T. Behram

71'

M. Özyıldırım← O. Aydin

71'

S. Akaydin← B. Karadeniz

83'

S. Akaydin

85'

Y. Akyel← İ. Başaran

87'

B. ErPenalty

90+5'

O. Torun

Vanspor

Bandırmaspor

1

13

15

6

4

20

⚽

Bak

93

▼

Başaran

11

Taşkıran

7

▼

Satılmış

5

Vatanseve

90

▼

Karadeniz

25

Şenbaş

15

Cantürk

19

⚽

61

13

94

21

11

▼

Özkaymak

24

Küpeli

65

▼

Aydin

17

▼

Behram

Manager: H. Şimşir

62'▲B. Gök←▼C. Özkaymak

69'▲B. Er←▼T. Behram

71'▲M. Özyıldırım←▼O. Aydin

Vanspor FK substitutes

93Gök9Er38Özyıldırım45Güler10Tacir5Birinci8Aşcıgil

56'▲B. Keser←▼B. Satılmış

71'▲S. Akaydin←▼B. Karadeniz

85'▲Y. Akyel←▼İ. Başaran

Bandırmaspor substitutes

77Keser9Akaydin8Akyel91Özer19Bilgi88Koçak40Şahin