Vanløse 2–0 KFUM Roskilde: Result & Stats

Vanløse

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

KFUM Roskilde

3/19/2022

3. Division · Round 19Vanløse IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vanløse50%

×Draw24%

KFUM Roskilde25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VanløseExpected goals in this matchKFUM Roskilde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.10

Vanløse

1.65

KFUM Roskilde

1.10

Vanløse creates 50% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 16 away

1.42

creates per match

0.94

1.27

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Vanløse

1.42

KFUM Roskilde

0.94

allows per match

Vanløse

1.27

KFUM Roskilde

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vanløse+0.00on par

KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanløse ↓

KFUM Roskilde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vanløse or draw

75%

Vanløse or KFUM Roskilde

76%

Draw or KFUM Roskilde

50%

Winning margin

Vanløse wins by 2+

27%

KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vanløse 1+ goals

81%

Vanløse 2+ goals

49%

Vanløse 3+ goals

23%

KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals

67%

KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals

30%

KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vanløse (draw refunded)

66%

KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanløse at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

KFUM Roskilde away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanløse attack 1.42 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.65

KFUM Roskilde attack 0.94 + Vanløse defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vanløse scores more

50%

level

24%

KFUM Roskilde scores more

25%

Vanløse at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vanløse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff