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KFUM Roskilde vs Vanløse — 3. Division 2021

KFUM Roskilde
KFUM Roskilde
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Vanløse
Vanløse
9/4/20213. Division3. Division · Round 6Lillevang Idrætscenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

KFUM Roskilde40%
×Draw25%
Vanløse35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM Roskilde
1.48
Vanløse
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 64 away

creates per match

KFUM Roskilde
1.44
Vanløse
1.05

allows per match

KFUM Roskilde
1.69
Vanløse
1.52

finishing

KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par
Vanløse+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Roskilde ↓

Vanløse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

KFUM Roskilde or draw
65%
KFUM Roskilde or Vanløse
75%
Draw or Vanløse
60%

Winning margin

KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+
19%
Vanløse wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals
77%
KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals
43%
KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals
19%
Vanløse 1+ goals
75%
Vanløse 2+ goals
40%
Vanløse 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)
53%
Vanløse (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Roskilde at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Vanløse away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.52 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Roskilde attack 1.44 + Vanløse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vanløse attack 1.05 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KFUM Roskilde scores more
40%
level
25%
Vanløse scores more
35%

KFUM Roskilde at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KFUM Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division: KFUM Roskilde 1–2 Vanløse

Vanløse beat KFUM Roskilde 2-1 in 3. Division on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Lillevang Idrætscenter in Roskilde.