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Vänersborgs IF vs Tvååker — Ettan - Södra 2019

Vänersborgs IF
Vänersborgs IF
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tvååker
Tvååker
4/22/2023Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 4Vänersvallen Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vänersborgs IF34%
×Draw26%
Tvååker40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vänersborgs IF
1.25
Tvååker
1.40

Tvååker creates 12% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 97 away

creates per match

Vänersborgs IF
1.11
Tvååker
1.33

allows per match

Vänersborgs IF
1.47
Tvååker
1.39

finishing

Vänersborgs IF+0.00on par
Tvååker+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vänersborgs IF ↓

Tvååker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vänersborgs IF or draw
60%
Vänersborgs IF or Tvååker
74%
Draw or Tvååker
66%

Winning margin

Vänersborgs IF wins by 2+
14%
Tvååker wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Vänersborgs IF 1+ goals
71%
Vänersborgs IF 2+ goals
36%
Vänersborgs IF 3+ goals
13%
Tvååker 1+ goals
75%
Tvååker 2+ goals
41%
Tvååker 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vänersborgs IF (draw refunded)
45%
Tvååker (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vänersborgs IF at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

Tvååker away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vänersborgs IF attack 1.11 + Tvååker defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tvååker attack 1.33 + Vänersborgs IF defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vänersborgs IF scores more
34%
level
26%
Tvååker scores more
40%

Tvååker at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tvååker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vänersborgs IF vs Tvååker

Vänersborgs IF beat Tvååker 3-0 in Ettan - Södra on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Vänersvallen Nord in Vänersborg.