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Tvååker vs Vänersborgs IF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Tvååker
Tvååker
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vänersborgs IF
Vänersborgs IF
8/19/2022Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 19Övrevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tvååker42%
×Draw26%
Vänersborgs IF32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tvååker
1.43
Vänersborgs IF
1.21

Tvååker creates 18% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tvååker
1.29
Vänersborgs IF
1.27

allows per match

Tvååker
1.15
Vänersborgs IF
1.56

finishing

Tvååker+0.00on par
Vänersborgs IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tvååker ↓

Vänersborgs IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tvååker or draw
68%
Tvååker or Vänersborgs IF
74%
Draw or Vänersborgs IF
58%

Winning margin

Tvååker wins by 2+
20%
Vänersborgs IF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tvååker 1+ goals
76%
Tvååker 2+ goals
42%
Tvååker 3+ goals
17%
Vänersborgs IF 1+ goals
70%
Vänersborgs IF 2+ goals
34%
Vänersborgs IF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tvååker (draw refunded)
57%
Vänersborgs IF (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tvååker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.15 · 97 matches

Vänersborgs IF away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tvååker attack 1.29 + Vänersborgs IF defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Vänersborgs IF attack 1.27 + Tvååker defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tvååker scores more
42%
level
26%
Vänersborgs IF scores more
32%

Tvååker at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tvååker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Tvååker 1–2 Vänersborgs IF

Vänersborgs IF beat Tvååker 2-1 in Ettan - Södra on August 19, 2022.

The match was played at Övrevi in Tvååker.