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Vänersborgs IF vs Tidaholms GoIF — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Vänersborgs IF
Vänersborgs IF
FT
8 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Tidaholms GoIF
Tidaholms GoIF
O. A. Yusuf 90'
V. Gashi 79', 64' (pen), 48', 3'
F. Nilsson 52'
K. Vukaj 36', 6'
D. F. Gegerfelt 62', 24'
L. Norman 43'
10/5/2025Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 24Vänersvallen Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vänersborgs IF55%
×Draw22%
Tidaholms GoIF23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vänersborgs IF
2.00
Tidaholms GoIF
1.23

Vänersborgs IF creates 63% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vänersborgs IF
1.47
Tidaholms GoIF
0.85

allows per match

Vänersborgs IF
1.60
Tidaholms GoIF
2.54

finishing

Vänersborgs IF+0.00on par
Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vänersborgs IF ↓

Tidaholms GoIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vänersborgs IF or draw
77%
Vänersborgs IF or Tidaholms GoIF
78%
Draw or Tidaholms GoIF
45%

Winning margin

Vänersborgs IF wins by 2+
32%
Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vänersborgs IF 1+ goals
86%
Vänersborgs IF 2+ goals
59%
Vänersborgs IF 3+ goals
32%
Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals
71%
Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals
35%
Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vänersborgs IF (draw refunded)
70%
Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vänersborgs IF at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Tidaholms GoIF away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vänersborgs IF attack 1.47 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.00

Tidaholms GoIF attack 0.85 + Vänersborgs IF defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vänersborgs IF scores more
55%
level
22%
Tidaholms GoIF scores more
23%

Vänersborgs IF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vänersborgs IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
V. Gashi
6'
K. Vukaj
24'
D. F. Gegerfelt
36'
K. Vukaj
43'
L. Norman
48'
V. Gashi
52'
F. Nilsson
62'
D. F. Gegerfelt
64'
V. GashiPenalty
79'
V. Gashi
90'
O. A. Yusuf
Vänersborgs
Tidaholms
A. Kilner
Manager: A. Kilner
J. David
Manager: J. David

Match Recap: Vänersborgs IF vs Tidaholms GoIF

Vänersborgs IF beat Tidaholms GoIF 8-3 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on October 5, 2025.

Goals: V. Gashi (3', 48', 64' pen, 79'), K. Vukaj (6', 36'), D. F. Gegerfelt (24', 62'), L. Norman (43'), F. Nilsson (52'), O. A. Yusuf (90').

The match was played at Vänersvallen Nord in Vänersborg.