Tidaholms GoIF 0–3 Vänersborgs IF: Result & Stats

Tidaholms GoIF

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Vänersborgs IF

V. Gashi 42'

K. Vukaj 37'

M. Karlsson 4'

6/19/2025

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 13Ulvesborg IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tidaholms GoIF40%

×Draw23%

Vänersborgs IF36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tidaholms GoIFExpected goals in this matchVänersborgs IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.58

Tidaholms GoIF

1.68

Vänersborgs IF

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 54 away

1.23

creates per match

1.54

1.62

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Tidaholms GoIF

1.23

Vänersborgs IF

1.54

allows per match

Tidaholms GoIF

1.62

Vänersborgs IF

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par

Vänersborgs IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tidaholms GoIF ↓

Vänersborgs IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Tidaholms GoIF or draw

64%

Tidaholms GoIF or Vänersborgs IF

77%

Draw or Vänersborgs IF

60%

Winning margin

Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+

21%

Vänersborgs IF wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals

81%

Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals

50%

Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals

24%

Vänersborgs IF 1+ goals

79%

Vänersborgs IF 2+ goals

47%

Vänersborgs IF 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)

53%

Vänersborgs IF (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tidaholms GoIF at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Vänersborgs IF away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tidaholms GoIF attack 1.23 + Vänersborgs IF defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.68

Vänersborgs IF attack 1.54 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tidaholms GoIF scores more

40%

level

23%

Vänersborgs IF scores more

36%

Tidaholms GoIF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tidaholms GoIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Karlsson

37'

K. Vukaj

42'

V. Gashi

Tidaholms

Vänersborgs

Manager: J. David

Manager: A. Kilner