Vänersborgs IF 2–4 Herrestads: Result & Stats

Vänersborgs IF

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Herrestads

8/31/2024

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 19Vänersvallen Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Vänersborgs IF39%

×Draw24%

Herrestads38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vänersborgs IFExpected goals in this matchHerrestads

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.57

Vänersborgs IF

1.59

Herrestads

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 59 away

1.47

creates per match

1.54

1.60

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Vänersborgs IF

1.47

Herrestads

1.54

allows per match

Vänersborgs IF

1.60

Herrestads

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vänersborgs IF+0.00on par

Herrestads+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vänersborgs IF ↓

Herrestads →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Vänersborgs IF or draw

62%

Vänersborgs IF or Herrestads

76%

Draw or Herrestads

61%

Winning margin

Vänersborgs IF wins by 2+

19%

Herrestads wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vänersborgs IF 1+ goals

80%

Vänersborgs IF 2+ goals

47%

Vänersborgs IF 3+ goals

21%

Herrestads 1+ goals

79%

Herrestads 2+ goals

46%

Herrestads 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Vänersborgs IF (draw refunded)

51%

Herrestads (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vänersborgs IF at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Herrestads away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vänersborgs IF attack 1.47 + Herrestads defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Herrestads attack 1.54 + Vänersborgs IF defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vänersborgs IF scores more

39%

level

24%

Herrestads scores more

38%

Vänersborgs IF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vänersborgs IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff