Herrestads 3–3 Vänersborgs IF: Result & Stats

Herrestads

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Vänersborgs IF

3/29/2025

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 1Undavallen Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Herrestads55%

×Draw22%

Vänersborgs IF23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HerrestadsExpected goals in this matchVänersborgs IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.25

Herrestads

2.02

Vänersborgs IF

1.25

Herrestads creates 62% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 54 away

1.92

creates per match

1.54

0.97

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Herrestads

1.92

Vänersborgs IF

1.54

allows per match

Herrestads

0.97

Vänersborgs IF

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Herrestads+0.00on par

Vänersborgs IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herrestads ↓

Vänersborgs IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Herrestads or draw

77%

Herrestads or Vänersborgs IF

78%

Draw or Vänersborgs IF

45%

Winning margin

Herrestads wins by 2+

32%

Vänersborgs IF wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Herrestads 1+ goals

87%

Herrestads 2+ goals

60%

Herrestads 3+ goals

33%

Vänersborgs IF 1+ goals

71%

Vänersborgs IF 2+ goals

36%

Vänersborgs IF 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Herrestads (draw refunded)

70%

Vänersborgs IF (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herrestads at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

Vänersborgs IF away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herrestads attack 1.92 + Vänersborgs IF defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.02

Vänersborgs IF attack 1.54 + Herrestads defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Herrestads scores more

55%

level

22%

Vänersborgs IF scores more

23%

Herrestads at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Herrestads will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff