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Vänersborgs FK vs Torslanda — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Vänersborgs FK
Vänersborgs FK
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Torslanda
Torslanda
8/27/2023Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 18Vänersvallen Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Vänersborgs FK37%
×Draw24%
Torslanda39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vänersborgs FK
1.57
Torslanda
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 26 away

creates per match

Vänersborgs FK
1.72
Torslanda
1.31

allows per match

Vänersborgs FK
1.91
Torslanda
1.42

finishing

Vänersborgs FK+0.00on par
Torslanda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vänersborgs FK ↓

Torslanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vänersborgs FK or draw
61%
Vänersborgs FK or Torslanda
76%
Draw or Torslanda
63%

Winning margin

Vänersborgs FK wins by 2+
18%
Torslanda wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Vänersborgs FK 1+ goals
79%
Vänersborgs FK 2+ goals
46%
Vänersborgs FK 3+ goals
21%
Torslanda 1+ goals
80%
Torslanda 2+ goals
48%
Torslanda 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vänersborgs FK (draw refunded)
49%
Torslanda (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vänersborgs FK at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.91 · 94 matches

Torslanda away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vänersborgs FK attack 1.72 + Torslanda defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.57

Torslanda attack 1.31 + Vänersborgs FK defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vänersborgs FK scores more
37%
level
24%
Torslanda scores more
39%

Torslanda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torslanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Vänersborgs FK 0–2 Torslanda

Torslanda beat Vänersborgs FK 2-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Vänersvallen Nord in Vänersborg.