Torslanda 2–2 Vänersborgs FK: Result & Stats

Torslanda

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Vänersborgs FK

4/29/2023

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 5Torslandavallen 2 Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Torslanda53%

×Draw21%

Vänersborgs FK26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorslandaExpected goals in this matchVänersborgs FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.41

Torslanda

2.10

Vänersborgs FK

1.41

Torslanda creates 49% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 92 away

2.19

creates per match

1.36

1.46

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Torslanda

2.19

Vänersborgs FK

1.36

allows per match

Torslanda

1.46

Vänersborgs FK

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torslanda+0.00on par

Vänersborgs FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torslanda ↓

Vänersborgs FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Torslanda or draw

74%

Torslanda or Vänersborgs FK

79%

Draw or Vänersborgs FK

47%

Winning margin

Torslanda wins by 2+

32%

Vänersborgs FK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Torslanda 1+ goals

88%

Torslanda 2+ goals

62%

Torslanda 3+ goals

35%

Vänersborgs FK 1+ goals

76%

Vänersborgs FK 2+ goals

41%

Vänersborgs FK 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Torslanda (draw refunded)

67%

Vänersborgs FK (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torslanda at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Vänersborgs FK away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.01 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torslanda attack 2.19 + Vänersborgs FK defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.10

Vänersborgs FK attack 1.36 + Torslanda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Torslanda scores more

53%

level

21%

Vänersborgs FK scores more

26%

Torslanda at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Torslanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff