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Vänersborgs FK vs Tidaholms GoIF — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Vänersborgs FK
Vänersborgs FK
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tidaholms GoIF
Tidaholms GoIF
10/11/2025Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 25Vänersvallen Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vänersborgs FK54%
×Draw21%
Tidaholms GoIF25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vänersborgs FK
2.13
Tidaholms GoIF
1.38

Vänersborgs FK creates 54% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vänersborgs FK
1.72
Tidaholms GoIF
0.85

allows per match

Vänersborgs FK
1.91
Tidaholms GoIF
2.54

finishing

Vänersborgs FK+0.00on par
Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vänersborgs FK ↓

Tidaholms GoIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Vänersborgs FK or draw
75%
Vänersborgs FK or Tidaholms GoIF
79%
Draw or Tidaholms GoIF
46%

Winning margin

Vänersborgs FK wins by 2+
33%
Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vänersborgs FK 1+ goals
88%
Vänersborgs FK 2+ goals
63%
Vänersborgs FK 3+ goals
35%
Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals
75%
Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals
40%
Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vänersborgs FK (draw refunded)
69%
Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vänersborgs FK at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.91 · 94 matches

Tidaholms GoIF away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vänersborgs FK attack 1.72 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.13

Tidaholms GoIF attack 0.85 + Vänersborgs FK defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vänersborgs FK scores more
54%
level
21%
Tidaholms GoIF scores more
25%

Vänersborgs FK at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vänersborgs FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vänersborgs FK vs Tidaholms GoIF

Vänersborgs FK and Tidaholms GoIF drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Vänersvallen Nord in Vänersborg.