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Tidaholms GoIF vs Vänersborgs FK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Tidaholms GoIF
Tidaholms GoIF
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Vänersborgs FK
Vänersborgs FK
4/4/2025Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 2Tidavallen B-plan Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tidaholms GoIF41%
×Draw24%
Vänersborgs FK35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tidaholms GoIF
1.62
Vänersborgs FK
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 92 away

creates per match

Tidaholms GoIF
1.23
Vänersborgs FK
1.36

allows per match

Tidaholms GoIF
1.62
Vänersborgs FK
2.01

finishing

Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par
Vänersborgs FK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tidaholms GoIF ↓

Vänersborgs FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tidaholms GoIF or draw
65%
Tidaholms GoIF or Vänersborgs FK
76%
Draw or Vänersborgs FK
59%

Winning margin

Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+
21%
Vänersborgs FK wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals
80%
Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals
48%
Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals
22%
Vänersborgs FK 1+ goals
77%
Vänersborgs FK 2+ goals
44%
Vänersborgs FK 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)
54%
Vänersborgs FK (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tidaholms GoIF at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Vänersborgs FK away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.01 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tidaholms GoIF attack 1.23 + Vänersborgs FK defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.62

Vänersborgs FK attack 1.36 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tidaholms GoIF scores more
41%
level
24%
Vänersborgs FK scores more
35%

Tidaholms GoIF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tidaholms GoIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Tidaholms GoIF 1–3 Vänersborgs FK

Vänersborgs FK beat Tidaholms GoIF 3-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on April 4, 2025.

The match was played at Tidavallen B-plan Konstgräs in Tidaholm.