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Vänersborgs FK vs Grebbestad — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Vänersborgs FK
Vänersborgs FK
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Grebbestad
Grebbestad
9/6/2024Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 20Vänersvallen Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Vänersborgs FK41%
×Draw22%
Grebbestad37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vänersborgs FK
1.84
Grebbestad
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 92 away

creates per match

Vänersborgs FK
1.71
Grebbestad
1.51

allows per match

Vänersborgs FK
1.93
Grebbestad
1.98

finishing

Vänersborgs FK+0.00on par
Grebbestad+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vänersborgs FK ↓

Grebbestad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vänersborgs FK or draw
63%
Vänersborgs FK or Grebbestad
78%
Draw or Grebbestad
59%

Winning margin

Vänersborgs FK wins by 2+
22%
Grebbestad wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vänersborgs FK 1+ goals
84%
Vänersborgs FK 2+ goals
55%
Vänersborgs FK 3+ goals
28%
Grebbestad 1+ goals
82%
Grebbestad 2+ goals
51%
Grebbestad 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Vänersborgs FK (draw refunded)
53%
Grebbestad (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vänersborgs FK at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.93 · 95 matches

Grebbestad away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.98 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vänersborgs FK attack 1.71 + Grebbestad defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.84

Grebbestad attack 1.51 + Vänersborgs FK defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vänersborgs FK scores more
41%
level
22%
Grebbestad scores more
37%

Vänersborgs FK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vänersborgs FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Vänersborgs FK 3–1 Grebbestad

Vänersborgs FK beat Grebbestad 3-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on September 6, 2024.

The match was played at Vänersvallen Nord in Vänersborg.