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Grebbestad vs Vänersborgs FK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Grebbestad
Grebbestad
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vänersborgs FK
Vänersborgs FK
5/11/2024Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 7Siljevi 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Grebbestad52%
×Draw21%
Vänersborgs FK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grebbestad
2.06
Vänersborgs FK
1.43

Grebbestad creates 44% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 94 away

creates per match

Grebbestad
2.05
Vänersborgs FK
1.34

allows per match

Grebbestad
1.52
Vänersborgs FK
2.07

finishing

Grebbestad+0.00on par
Vänersborgs FK+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grebbestad ↓

Vänersborgs FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Grebbestad or draw
73%
Grebbestad or Vänersborgs FK
79%
Draw or Vänersborgs FK
48%

Winning margin

Grebbestad wins by 2+
30%
Vänersborgs FK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Grebbestad 1+ goals
87%
Grebbestad 2+ goals
61%
Grebbestad 3+ goals
34%
Vänersborgs FK 1+ goals
76%
Vänersborgs FK 2+ goals
42%
Vänersborgs FK 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Grebbestad (draw refunded)
66%
Vänersborgs FK (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grebbestad at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

Vänersborgs FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.07 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grebbestad attack 2.05 + Vänersborgs FK defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.06

Vänersborgs FK attack 1.34 + Grebbestad defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grebbestad scores more
52%
level
21%
Vänersborgs FK scores more
27%

Grebbestad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Grebbestad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grebbestad vs Vänersborgs FK

Grebbestad beat Vänersborgs FK 3-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Siljevi 1 in Grebbestad.