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Vändra vs Elva — Esiliiga A 2026

Vändra
Vändra
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Elva
Elva
6/28/2020Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 8Vändra staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vändra40%
×Draw22%
Elva38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vändra
1.87
Elva
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 121 away

creates per match

Vändra
1.83
Elva
1.40

allows per match

Vändra
2.25
Elva
1.91

finishing

Vändra+0.00on par
Elva+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vändra ↓

Elva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vändra or draw
62%
Vändra or Elva
78%
Draw or Elva
60%

Winning margin

Vändra wins by 2+
21%
Elva wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vändra 1+ goals
85%
Vändra 2+ goals
56%
Vändra 3+ goals
29%
Elva 1+ goals
84%
Elva 2+ goals
54%
Elva 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Vändra (draw refunded)
51%
Elva (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vändra at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Elva away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.91 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vändra attack 1.83 + Elva defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.87

Elva attack 1.40 + Vändra defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vändra scores more
40%
level
22%
Elva scores more
38%

Vändra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vändra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vändra 2 – 3 Elva

Elva beat Vändra 3-2 in Esiliiga A on June 28, 2020.

The match was played at Vändra staadion in Vändra.