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Elva vs Vändra — Esiliiga A 2026

Elva
Elva
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Vändra
Vändra
8/8/2020Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 16Elva linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Elva54%
×Draw21%
Vändra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elva
2.17
Vändra
1.43

Elva creates 52% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 14 away

creates per match

Elva
1.98
Vändra
1.36

allows per match

Elva
1.50
Vändra
2.36

finishing

Elva+0.00on par
Vändra+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elva ↓

Vändra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Elva or draw
75%
Elva or Vändra
79%
Draw or Vändra
46%

Winning margin

Elva wins by 2+
33%
Vändra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Elva 1+ goals
89%
Elva 2+ goals
64%
Elva 3+ goals
36%
Vändra 1+ goals
76%
Vändra 2+ goals
42%
Vändra 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Elva (draw refunded)
68%
Vändra (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elva at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.50 · 125 matches

Vändra away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elva attack 1.98 + Vändra defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.17

Vändra attack 1.36 + Elva defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Elva scores more
54%
level
21%
Vändra scores more
25%

Elva at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Elva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Elva 3–2 Vändra

Elva beat Vändra 3-2 in Esiliiga A on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Elva linnastaadion in Elva.