Vancouver Whitecaps 4–1 San Jose Earthquakes

Vancouver Whitecaps

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

San Jose Earthquakes

10/5/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 33BC Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps54%

×Draw22%

San Jose Earthquakes25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vancouver WhitecapsExpected goals in this matchSan Jose Earthquakes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.27

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.97

San Jose Earthquakes

1.27

Vancouver Whitecaps creates 55% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

2.29

creates per match

1.42

1.12

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps

2.29

San Jose Earthquakes

1.42

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.12

San Jose Earthquakes

1.65

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.53scores more than expected

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps-0.10scores less

San Jose Earthquakes+0.53scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps ↓

San Jose Earthquakes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps or draw

75%

Vancouver Whitecaps or San Jose Earthquakes

78%

Draw or San Jose Earthquakes

46%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+

31%

San Jose Earthquakes wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals

86%

Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals

58%

Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals

31%

San Jose Earthquakes 1+ goals

72%

San Jose Earthquakes 2+ goals

36%

San Jose Earthquakes 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)

69%

San Jose Earthquakes (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.12 · 16 matches

San Jose Earthquakes away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 2.29 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.97

San Jose Earthquakes attack 1.42 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps scores more

54%

level

22%

San Jose Earthquakes scores more

25%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff