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San Jose Earthquakes vs Vancouver Whitecaps — Major League Soccer 2026

San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps
8/10/2025Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 26PayPal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

San Jose Earthquakes37%
×Draw23%
Vancouver Whitecaps40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Jose Earthquakes
1.60
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

creates per match

San Jose Earthquakes
2.04
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.74

allows per match

San Jose Earthquakes
1.58
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.17

finishing

San Jose Earthquakes-0.20scores less
Vancouver Whitecaps+0.26scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jose Earthquakes ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

San Jose Earthquakes or draw
60%
San Jose Earthquakes or Vancouver Whitecaps
77%
Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps
63%

Winning margin

San Jose Earthquakes wins by 2+
18%
Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

San Jose Earthquakes 1+ goals
80%
San Jose Earthquakes 2+ goals
47%
San Jose Earthquakes 3+ goals
22%
Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals
81%
Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals
49%
Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

San Jose Earthquakes (draw refunded)
48%
Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jose Earthquakes at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.58 · 25 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jose Earthquakes attack 2.04 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.60

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 1.74 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

San Jose Earthquakes scores more
37%
level
23%
Vancouver Whitecaps scores more
40%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Jose Earthquakes vs Vancouver Whitecaps

San Jose Earthquakes beat Vancouver Whitecaps 2-1 in Major League Soccer on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at PayPal Park in San Jose.