Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 Real Salt Lake

Vancouver Whitecaps

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Salt Lake

5/4/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 11BC Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps59%

×Draw21%

Real Salt Lake20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vancouver WhitecapsExpected goals in this matchReal Salt Lake

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.16

Vancouver Whitecaps

2.13

Real Salt Lake

1.16

Vancouver Whitecaps creates 84% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

2.29

creates per match

1.20

1.12

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps

2.29

Real Salt Lake

1.20

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.12

Real Salt Lake

1.98

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps-0.10scores less

Real Salt Lake-0.01on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps ↓

Real Salt Lake →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps or draw

80%

Vancouver Whitecaps or Real Salt Lake

79%

Draw or Real Salt Lake

41%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+

36%

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals

88%

Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals

63%

Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals

35%

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

69%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

32%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)

75%

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.12 · 16 matches

Real Salt Lake away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.98 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 2.29 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.13

Real Salt Lake attack 1.20 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps scores more

59%

level

21%

Real Salt Lake scores more

20%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 Real Salt Lake

Vancouver Whitecaps beat Real Salt Lake 2-1 in Major League Soccer on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at BC Place in Vancouver.

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Real Salt Lake — Major League Soccer 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Major League Soccer: Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 Real Salt Lake