Real Salt Lake 2–3 Vancouver Whitecaps

Real Salt Lake

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Vancouver Whitecaps

D. Luna 4'

Z. Gozo 1'

P. Vite 90'

B. White 25' (pen), 20'

5/25/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 15Rio Tinto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Real Salt Lake37%

×Draw25%

Vancouver Whitecaps39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Salt LakeExpected goals in this matchVancouver Whitecaps

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.48

Real Salt Lake

1.44

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

1.70

creates per match

1.74

1.22

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Real Salt Lake

1.70

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.74

allows per match

Real Salt Lake

1.22

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.17

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Real Salt Lake+0.14scores more

Vancouver Whitecaps+0.26scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Salt Lake ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Real Salt Lake or draw

61%

Real Salt Lake or Vancouver Whitecaps

75%

Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps

63%

Winning margin

Real Salt Lake wins by 2+

17%

Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Real Salt Lake 1+ goals

76%

Real Salt Lake 2+ goals

42%

Real Salt Lake 3+ goals

18%

Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals

77%

Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals

43%

Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Real Salt Lake (draw refunded)

49%

Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Salt Lake at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.22 · 19 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Salt Lake attack 1.70 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 1.74 + Real Salt Lake defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Salt Lake scores more

37%

level

25%

Vancouver Whitecaps scores more

39%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Luna

Real Salt Lake · M

8.2

Match Events

1'

Z. Gozo↳ D. Luna

4'

D. Luna

20'

B. White↳ S. Berhalter

23'

Sam AdekugbePenalty confirmed

25'

B. WhitePenalty

45+4'

56'

59'

61'

65'

68'

T. Johnson← S. Adekugbe

68'

E. Sabbi← J. Nelson

71'

S. Junqua← A. Katranis

71'

A. Piol← W. Agada

72'

B. Ojeda← P. Ruiz

77'

Ali Ahmed

81'

B. Hidalgo← N. Caliskan

81'

M. Laborda← E. Ocampo

82'

Ralph Priso

85'

D. Rios← A. Ahmed

85'

J. Ngando← R. Priso-Mbongue

90+4'

Emeka Eneli

90'

P. Vite↳ E. Sabbi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealVancouver

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots14

0.98Expected Goals (xG)2.99

8Corners6

16Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots14

4On Target6

9Off Target6

1Blocked2

8Inside Box6

6Outside Box8

Passing

44%Possession56%

344Total Passes448

274Accurate Passes389

80%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.71Goals Prevented-0.71

Discipline

16Fouls12

5Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2

Match Recap: Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps

Vancouver Whitecaps beat Real Salt Lake 3-2 in Major League Soccer on May 25, 2025.

Goals: Z. Gozo (1'), D. Luna (4'), B. White (20', 25' pen), P. Vite (90').

Vancouver Whitecaps controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy.

Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps — Major League Soccer 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps