Vancouver Whitecaps 3–4 Houston Dynamo

Vancouver Whitecaps

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Houston Dynamo

7/21/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 37BC Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps54%

×Draw22%

Houston Dynamo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vancouver WhitecapsExpected goals in this matchHouston Dynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.21

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.93

Houston Dynamo

1.21

Vancouver Whitecaps creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

2.29

creates per match

1.30

1.12

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps

2.29

Houston Dynamo

1.30

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.12

Houston Dynamo

1.56

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps-0.10scores less

Houston Dynamo+0.38scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps ↓

Houston Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps or draw

76%

Vancouver Whitecaps or Houston Dynamo

78%

Draw or Houston Dynamo

46%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+

31%

Houston Dynamo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals

85%

Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals

57%

Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals

30%

Houston Dynamo 1+ goals

70%

Houston Dynamo 2+ goals

34%

Houston Dynamo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)

69%

Houston Dynamo (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.12 · 16 matches

Houston Dynamo away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.56 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 2.29 + Houston Dynamo defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.93

Houston Dynamo attack 1.30 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps scores more

54%

level

22%

Houston Dynamo scores more

24%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo

Houston Dynamo beat Vancouver Whitecaps 4-3 in Major League Soccer on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at BC Place in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo — Major League Soccer 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo