Houston Dynamo 0–3 Vancouver Whitecaps

Houston Dynamo

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Vancouver Whitecaps

B. White 56'

S. Berhalter 42'

E. Sabbi 4'

7/17/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 23Shell Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Houston Dynamo31%

×Draw25%

Vancouver Whitecaps44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Houston DynamoExpected goals in this matchVancouver Whitecaps

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.52

Houston Dynamo

1.23

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.52

Vancouver Whitecaps creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

1.39

creates per match

1.76

1.27

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Houston Dynamo

1.39

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.76

allows per match

Houston Dynamo

1.27

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.07

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Houston Dynamo-0.10scores less

Vancouver Whitecaps+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dynamo ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Houston Dynamo or draw

56%

Houston Dynamo or Vancouver Whitecaps

75%

Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps

69%

Winning margin

Houston Dynamo wins by 2+

13%

Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Houston Dynamo 1+ goals

71%

Houston Dynamo 2+ goals

35%

Houston Dynamo 3+ goals

13%

Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals

78%

Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals

45%

Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Houston Dynamo (draw refunded)

41%

Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dynamo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.27 · 21 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.07 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dynamo attack 1.39 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 1.76 + Houston Dynamo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Houston Dynamo scores more

31%

level

25%

Vancouver Whitecaps scores more

44%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

B. Utvik

Vancouver Whitecaps · D

7.7

Match Events

4'

14'

34'

38'

42'

S. Berhalter↳ B. White

49'

Brooklyn Raines

50'

Brian White

56'

B. White

59'

G. Dorsey← Felipe Andrade

59'

S. Kowalczyk← A. Bassi

59'

O. Lingr← L. Ennali

70'

Tate Johnson

72'

J. Nelson← D. Rios

72'

A. Cubas← R. Priso-Mbongue

75'

Sebastian Kowalczyk

78'

F. Awodesu← E. Bartlow

78'

D. Holmes← Artur

84'

B. Halbouni← R. Veselinovic

85'

J. Ngando← E. Sabbi

89'

Obafemi Awodesu

90+7'

Franco Escobar

90+4'

J. Badwal← S. Berhalter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HoustonVancouver

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots12

0.66Expected Goals (xG)1.99

6Corners1

19Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots12

2On Target7

6Off Target4

3Blocked1

7Inside Box11

4Outside Box1

Passing

59%Possession41%

482Total Passes333

419Accurate Passes271

87%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

0.19Goals Prevented0.19

Discipline

19Fouls10

5Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Houston Dynamo vs Vancouver Whitecaps

Vancouver Whitecaps beat Houston Dynamo 3-0 in Major League Soccer on July 17, 2025.

Goals: E. Sabbi (4'), S. Berhalter (42'), B. White (56').

Houston Dynamo controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston.

Houston Dynamo vs Vancouver Whitecaps — Major League Soccer 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Houston Dynamo vs Vancouver Whitecaps