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Vancouver Whitecaps vs FC Cincinnati — Major League Soccer 2026

Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
R. Gauld 89' (pen)
L. Acosta 83'
6/11/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 26BC Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps54%
×Draw22%
FC Cincinnati24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vancouver Whitecaps
1.97
FC Cincinnati
1.23

Vancouver Whitecaps creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps
2.29
FC Cincinnati
1.33

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps
1.12
FC Cincinnati
1.65

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps-0.10scores less
FC Cincinnati+0.35scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps ↓

FC Cincinnati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps or draw
76%
Vancouver Whitecaps or FC Cincinnati
78%
Draw or FC Cincinnati
46%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+
32%
FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals
86%
Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals
58%
Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals
31%
FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
71%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
35%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)
70%
FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.12 · 16 matches

FC Cincinnati away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.65 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 2.29 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.97

FC Cincinnati attack 1.33 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps scores more
54%
level
22%
FC Cincinnati scores more
24%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
S. CórdovaVancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps · F
7.5

Match Events

29'
Ian Murphy
60'
Ryan Raposo
66'
T. Blackmon← J. Brown
66'
J. Gressel← R. Raposo
68'
L. Acosta← D. Badji
68'
S. Arias← I. Murphy
73'
R. Gauld← A. Cubas
77'
Yerson Mosquera
78'
M. Pinto← Y. Kubo
83'
L. Acosta↳ M. Miazga
86'
S. Becher← B. White
86'
D. Caicedo← S. Berhalter
89'
R. GauldPenalty
90+2'
Pedro Vite
90+4'
R. Gaddis← Á. Barreal

Possession

53%Vancouver

Shots

11Vancouver

Pass accuracy

52%Vancouver

Statistics

VancouverFC
Overview
53%Possession47%
11Total Shots10
1.35Expected Goals (xG)1.64
5Corners2
16Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots10
3On Target3
5Off Target3
3Blocked4
8Inside Box9
3Outside Box1
Passing
53%Possession47%
424Total Passes374
355Accurate Passes291
84%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Major League Soccer: Vancouver Whitecaps 1–1 FC Cincinnati

Vancouver Whitecaps and FC Cincinnati drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on June 11, 2023.

Goals: L. Acosta (83'), R. Gauld (89' pen).

Vancouver Whitecaps controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at BC Place in Vancouver, British Columbia.