FC Cincinnati 2–2 Vancouver Whitecaps

FC Cincinnati

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Vancouver Whitecaps

B. Vázquez 23'

Á. Barreal 3'

C. Dájome 82'

R. Gauld 5'

7/14/2022

Major League Soccer · Round 28TQL Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

FC Cincinnati32%

×Draw24%

Vancouver Whitecaps44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CincinnatiExpected goals in this matchVancouver Whitecaps

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.67

FC Cincinnati

1.39

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.67

Vancouver Whitecaps creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

1.71

creates per match

1.76

1.58

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

FC Cincinnati

1.71

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.76

allows per match

FC Cincinnati

1.58

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.07

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

FC Cincinnati+0.18scores more

Vancouver Whitecaps+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati or draw

56%

FC Cincinnati or Vancouver Whitecaps

76%

Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps

68%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+

14%

Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals

75%

FC Cincinnati 2+ goals

40%

FC Cincinnati 3+ goals

16%

Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals

81%

Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals

50%

Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)

42%

Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.58 · 18 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.07 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati attack 1.71 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 1.76 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Cincinnati scores more

32%

level

24%

Vancouver Whitecaps scores more

44%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Á. Barreal

FC Cincinnati · F

7.9

Match Events

3'

Á. Barreal↳ Brenner

5'

R. Gauld↳ C. Dájome

23'

B. Vázquez↳ Brenner

36'

J. Nerwinski← J. Brown

38'

Russell Teibert

46'

I. Boehmer← C. Cropper

52'

Obinna Nwobodo

58'

Tyler Blackett

59'

B. White← P. Vite

64'

M. Baldisimo← É. Godoy

74'

Sergio Santos← B. Vázquez

80'

H. Medunjanin← Y. Kubo

80'

T. Ricketts← R. Teibert

80'

Caio Alexandre← L. Cavallini

82'

C. Dájome↳ T. Ricketts

86'

I. Murphy← G. Cameron

90+3'

Ryan Gauld

90+2'

A. Ordóñez← Sergio Santos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCVancouver

Overview

61%Possession39%

15Total Shots11

7Corners4

11Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots11

7On Target4

5Off Target3

3Blocked4

9Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

565Total Passes356

482Accurate Passes258

85%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2