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Vancouver Whitecaps II vs St. Louis City II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Vancouver Whitecaps II
Vancouver Whitecaps II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
St. Louis City II
St. Louis City II
6/30/2024MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 21Swangard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II40%
×Draw22%
St. Louis City II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.88
St. Louis City II
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 54 away

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II
2.00
St. Louis City II
1.94

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.71
St. Louis City II
1.76

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par
St. Louis City II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps II ↓

St. Louis City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps II or draw
62%
Vancouver Whitecaps II or St. Louis City II
78%
Draw or St. Louis City II
60%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+
22%
St. Louis City II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals
85%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals
56%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals
29%
St. Louis City II 1+ goals
84%
St. Louis City II 2+ goals
54%
St. Louis City II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)
52%
St. Louis City II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

St. Louis City II away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 2.00 + St. Louis City II defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.88

St. Louis City II attack 1.94 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more
40%
level
22%
St. Louis City II scores more
38%

Vancouver Whitecaps II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vancouver Whitecaps II vs St. Louis City II

Vancouver Whitecaps II beat St. Louis City II 3-1 in MLS Next Pro on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Swangard Stadium in Burnaby, British Columbia.