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St. Louis City II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II — MLS Next Pro 2022

St. Louis City II
St. Louis City II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vancouver Whitecaps II
Vancouver Whitecaps II
4/30/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 8CITYPARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

St. Louis City II59%
×Draw20%
Vancouver Whitecaps II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Louis City II
2.23
Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.27

St. Louis City II creates 76% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 48 away

creates per match

St. Louis City II
2.19
Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.44

allows per match

St. Louis City II
1.10
Vancouver Whitecaps II
2.27

finishing

St. Louis City II+0.00on par
Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Louis City II ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

St. Louis City II or draw
79%
St. Louis City II or Vancouver Whitecaps II
80%
Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps II
41%

Winning margin

St. Louis City II wins by 2+
37%
Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

St. Louis City II 1+ goals
89%
St. Louis City II 2+ goals
65%
St. Louis City II 3+ goals
38%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals
72%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals
36%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

St. Louis City II (draw refunded)
74%
Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Louis City II at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.10 · 52 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Louis City II attack 2.19 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.23

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 1.44 + St. Louis City II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

St. Louis City II scores more
59%
level
20%
Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more
21%

St. Louis City II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "St. Louis City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Louis City II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II

St. Louis City II beat Vancouver Whitecaps II 2-1 in MLS Next Pro on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at CITYPARK in St. Louis, Missouri.