Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vancouver Whitecaps II vs Houston Dynamo FC II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Vancouver Whitecaps II
Vancouver Whitecaps II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Houston Dynamo FC II
Houston Dynamo FC II
4/24/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 8Swangard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II44%
×Draw22%
Houston Dynamo FC II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.89
Houston Dynamo FC II
1.66

Vancouver Whitecaps II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II
2.00
Houston Dynamo FC II
1.61

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.71
Houston Dynamo FC II
1.78

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par
Houston Dynamo FC II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps II ↓

Houston Dynamo FC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps II or draw
66%
Vancouver Whitecaps II or Houston Dynamo FC II
78%
Draw or Houston Dynamo FC II
56%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+
24%
Houston Dynamo FC II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals
85%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals
56%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals
29%
Houston Dynamo FC II 1+ goals
81%
Houston Dynamo FC II 2+ goals
49%
Houston Dynamo FC II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)
56%
Houston Dynamo FC II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

Houston Dynamo FC II away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 2.00 + Houston Dynamo FC II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.89

Houston Dynamo FC II attack 1.61 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more
44%
level
22%
Houston Dynamo FC II scores more
34%

Vancouver Whitecaps II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vancouver Whitecaps II vs Houston Dynamo FC II

Houston Dynamo FC II beat Vancouver Whitecaps II 3-1 in MLS Next Pro on April 24, 2025.

The match was played at Swangard Stadium.