Houston Dynamo FC II 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps II

Houston Dynamo FC II

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vancouver Whitecaps II

8/13/2023

MLS Next Pro · Round 30SaberCats Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Houston Dynamo FC II57%

×Draw21%

Vancouver Whitecaps II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Houston Dynamo FC IIExpected goals in this matchVancouver Whitecaps II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.27

Houston Dynamo FC II

2.13

Vancouver Whitecaps II

1.27

Houston Dynamo FC II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 48 away

2.00

creates per match

1.44

1.10

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Houston Dynamo FC II

2.00

Vancouver Whitecaps II

1.44

allows per match

Houston Dynamo FC II

1.10

Vancouver Whitecaps II

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Houston Dynamo FC II+0.00on par

Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dynamo FC II ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Houston Dynamo FC II or draw

78%

Houston Dynamo FC II or Vancouver Whitecaps II

79%

Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps II

43%

Winning margin

Houston Dynamo FC II wins by 2+

35%

Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Houston Dynamo FC II 1+ goals

88%

Houston Dynamo FC II 2+ goals

63%

Houston Dynamo FC II 3+ goals

35%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals

72%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals

36%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Houston Dynamo FC II (draw refunded)

72%

Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dynamo FC II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dynamo FC II attack 2.00 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.13

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 1.44 + Houston Dynamo FC II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Houston Dynamo FC II scores more

57%

level

21%

Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more

22%

Houston Dynamo FC II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Houston Dynamo FC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff