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Vancouver Whitecaps II vs Austin II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Vancouver Whitecaps II
Vancouver Whitecaps II
Preview
01:00
Austin II
Austin II
7/23/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageSwangard Stadium
40%
Vancouver Whitecaps II
model favours
40%24%36%

Vancouver Whitecaps II score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II40%
×Draw24%
Austin II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.59
Austin II
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 36 away

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II
2.00
Austin II
1.31

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.71
Austin II
1.19

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par
Austin II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps II ↓

Austin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps II or draw
64%
Vancouver Whitecaps II or Austin II
76%
Draw or Austin II
60%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+
20%
Austin II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals
80%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals
47%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals
21%
Austin II 1+ goals
78%
Austin II 2+ goals
44%
Austin II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)
52%
Austin II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

Austin II away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 2.00 + Austin II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.59

Austin II attack 1.31 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more
40%
level
24%
Austin II scores more
36%

Vancouver Whitecaps II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Austin II have scored in 11 games running
  • Both teams score in 79% of Vancouver Whitecaps II’s matches
  • 68% of Vancouver Whitecaps II’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (68% and 63% over 2.5)
  • 29% of Austin II’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Vancouver Whitecaps II sit 12, Austin II 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LWLWD
II
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vancouver Whitecaps II face Austin II (MLS Next Pro)

MLS Next Pro returns with Vancouver Whitecaps II hosting Austin II. Match starts July 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vancouver Whitecaps II host Austin II at Swangard Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.