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Austin II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Austin II
Austin II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vancouver Whitecaps II
Vancouver Whitecaps II
6/10/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 16Parmer Field at St. David’s Performance Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Austin II56%
×Draw20%
Vancouver Whitecaps II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austin II
2.19
Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.34

Austin II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 48 away

creates per match

Austin II
2.11
Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.44

allows per match

Austin II
1.24
Vancouver Whitecaps II
2.27

finishing

Austin II+0.00on par
Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin II ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Austin II or draw
77%
Austin II or Vancouver Whitecaps II
80%
Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps II
44%

Winning margin

Austin II wins by 2+
35%
Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Austin II 1+ goals
89%
Austin II 2+ goals
64%
Austin II 3+ goals
37%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals
74%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals
39%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Austin II (draw refunded)
71%
Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin II at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin II attack 2.11 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.19

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 1.44 + Austin II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Austin II scores more
56%
level
20%
Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more
23%

Austin II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Austin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austin II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II

Austin II beat Vancouver Whitecaps II 1-0 in MLS Next Pro on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Parmer Field at St. David’s Performance Center in Austin, Texas.