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Vancouver Whitecaps II vs Austin II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Vancouver Whitecaps II
Vancouver Whitecaps II
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Austin II
Austin II
8/20/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 32BC Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II40%
×Draw24%
Austin II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.59
Austin II
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 36 away

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II
2.00
Austin II
1.31

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.71
Austin II
1.19

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par
Austin II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps II ↓

Austin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps II or draw
64%
Vancouver Whitecaps II or Austin II
76%
Draw or Austin II
60%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+
20%
Austin II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals
80%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals
47%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals
21%
Austin II 1+ goals
78%
Austin II 2+ goals
44%
Austin II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)
52%
Austin II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

Austin II away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 2.00 + Austin II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.59

Austin II attack 1.31 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more
40%
level
24%
Austin II scores more
36%

Vancouver Whitecaps II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Vancouver Whitecaps II 1–1 Austin II

Vancouver Whitecaps II and Austin II drew 1-1 in MLS Next Pro on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at BC Place in Vancouver, British Columbia.