Vancouver Rise W 2–1 Ottawa Rapid W: Result & Stats

Vancouver Rise W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ottawa Rapid W

11/5/2025

Northern Super League · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vancouver Rise W33%

×Draw23%

Ottawa Rapid W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vancouver Rise WExpected goals in this matchOttawa Rapid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.71

Vancouver Rise W

1.46

Ottawa Rapid W

1.71

Ottawa Rapid W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.71

creates per match

1.83

1.59

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Vancouver Rise W

1.71

Ottawa Rapid W

1.83

allows per match

Vancouver Rise W

1.59

Ottawa Rapid W

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vancouver Rise W+0.00on par

Ottawa Rapid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Rise W ↓

Ottawa Rapid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Vancouver Rise W or draw

56%

Vancouver Rise W or Ottawa Rapid W

77%

Draw or Ottawa Rapid W

67%

Winning margin

Vancouver Rise W wins by 2+

15%

Ottawa Rapid W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Vancouver Rise W 1+ goals

77%

Vancouver Rise W 2+ goals

43%

Vancouver Rise W 3+ goals

18%

Ottawa Rapid W 1+ goals

82%

Ottawa Rapid W 2+ goals

51%

Ottawa Rapid W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Rise W (draw refunded)

43%

Ottawa Rapid W (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Rise W at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Ottawa Rapid W away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Rise W attack 1.71 + Ottawa Rapid W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ottawa Rapid W attack 1.83 + Vancouver Rise W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vancouver Rise W scores more

33%

level

23%

Ottawa Rapid W scores more

44%

Ottawa Rapid W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ottawa Rapid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff