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Ottawa Rapid W vs Vancouver Rise W — Northern Super League 2026

Ottawa Rapid W
Ottawa Rapid W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Vancouver Rise W
Vancouver Rise W
5/6/2026Northern Super LeagueNorthern Super League

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ottawa Rapid W53%
×Draw23%
Vancouver Rise W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ottawa Rapid W
1.87
Vancouver Rise W
1.21

Ottawa Rapid W creates 55% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ottawa Rapid W
1.84
Vancouver Rise W
1.43

allows per match

Ottawa Rapid W
1.00
Vancouver Rise W
1.90

finishing

Ottawa Rapid W+0.00on par
Vancouver Rise W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ottawa Rapid W ↓

Vancouver Rise W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ottawa Rapid W or draw
75%
Ottawa Rapid W or Vancouver Rise W
77%
Draw or Vancouver Rise W
47%

Winning margin

Ottawa Rapid W wins by 2+
30%
Vancouver Rise W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ottawa Rapid W 1+ goals
85%
Ottawa Rapid W 2+ goals
56%
Ottawa Rapid W 3+ goals
29%
Vancouver Rise W 1+ goals
70%
Vancouver Rise W 2+ goals
34%
Vancouver Rise W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ottawa Rapid W (draw refunded)
68%
Vancouver Rise W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ottawa Rapid W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Vancouver Rise W away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ottawa Rapid W attack 1.84 + Vancouver Rise W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.87

Vancouver Rise W attack 1.43 + Ottawa Rapid W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ottawa Rapid W scores more
53%
level
23%
Vancouver Rise W scores more
25%

Ottawa Rapid W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ottawa Rapid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ottawa Rapid W vs Vancouver Rise W

Ottawa Rapid W beat Vancouver Rise W 4-0 in Northern Super League on May 6, 2026.